Guardant360 came out on top. Returns as of 12/15/2020. Log in; Seeking Alpha. Gets Its Catalyst And Trades Up: Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Guardant Health Inc. (GH) By. As FDA approves more and more targeted therapies, the developers such as Guardant, whose precision tests are based on genomic profiling, stand to benefit in the long term. A look at the technology behind Guardant's diagnostics system, and some speculation as to which companies might be a potential suitor in a buyout Investment Thesis. With our more upbeat sales forecasts, the 2019 average in NTM EV/Sales indicates a sharp premium. 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Exact Sciences Corp. said it will acquire Thrive Earlier Detection Corp. to gain technology for cancer screening in a deal worth as much as $2.15 billion. Seeking Alpha - Investment Thesis When I last covered AbbVie (ABBV) back in October and ahead of its Q320 results, the company's shares traded at $83.5 and were in a … Landscape version of the Flipboard logo. Sources: The Author; Data from Seeking Alpha and the Author Estimates. It's usually because there's a perception that the companies are on to something big. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Roche (SIX:ROG; OTCQB:RHHBY), Basel, Switzerland. Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. However, as the coronavirus cases showed signs of easing in August following the surge in early summer, a slight recovery has begun in Q3 2020. In September, Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) paid $7.1 billion in cash and stock to acquire GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL), a developer of liquid biopsy-based tests for early detection. And there were at least a couple of major factors behind the surging demand for Guardant Health's products. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. That's still a fantastic performance even with the recent coronavirus-fueled decline. In another most recent transaction, which held on 6/30/2020, BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS bought approximately 1.4 million shares of Guardant Health Inc. Guardant Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: GH) today announced the pricing of its offering of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due … With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. I’m convinced that Guardant Health can deliver mind-blowing returns over the next 10 years as well. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains?source=tweet 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Nearly $36,250. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. But margin expansion hasn’t offset the impact from shrinking revenue growth, and for the second quarter in a row, the operating loss has widened by multiple times from a year ago. Guardant’s FDA win has increased its comparability to Adaptive, which already had FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers. Facebook. According to Illumina, early detection could make up ~61% of the global market for cancer genetic sequencing, which is growing at 27% of CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to reach $75 billion by 2035. 0. Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. flipped into Stock Ideas. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. Indicating ~32.9% YoY growth, ~$284.9 million of consensus revenue forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6% YoY growth for Q4 2020. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. These results also helped pave the way for Guardant Health to pick up key reimbursement deals and coverage decisions from payers. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Keith began writing for the Fool in 2012 and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics. From their late-stage clinical trials, two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. On an LTM (last twelve-month) basis, the company’s top-line had more than doubled compared to the year-ago period for four consecutive quarters through Q1 2020 (first quarter of 2020). In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. Investors scoop up shares because of a fear of missing out. This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. Yet, amid pandemic-related concerns over its revenue growth, the first-ever regulatory win hasn’t sparked the share price rally that usually follows such announcements. Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. Stocks. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). With EV at 28.5x of 12-month forward sales, the company trades at a ~24.8% discount to its 2019 average of ~37.9x. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. If Guardant Health can capture a significant share of these markets, its long-term returns could make the 360% gain since its IPO look like chump change. The company reported impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of Guardant360. If you had invested in the stock at its IPO, your initial investment would have nearly quadrupled in 20 months.That’s a whole lot better than tripling in a decade. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. Pending the FDA approval, the frontline workers and the vulnerable groups are likely to receive the first shots before the wider availability expected in mid-2021. However, the Street forecast for NTM (next twelve-month) revenue at ~$346.5 million implies ~27.7% YoY growth. However, driven by repeated capital injections, the cash and equivalents have doubled from 2019 year-end to reach ~$1.0 billion in Q3 2020. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. The burst in test volume growth seen in 2019 has come to a grinding halt. As the company’s long-term prospects in early cancer detection and the precision-oncology outweigh the near-term risks from COVID-19, Guardant is a compelling ‘Buy’ for us. Could Solar Power Save The Lone Star State? Guardant Health's shares sank as much as 34% off the highs from earlier in the year before rebounding. Here's how much money you'd now have if you had invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO. The recent FDA signoff for Guardant360 hasn’t fueled the expected share price rally in Guardant. The one investment that's never let long-term investors down. Assuming the historical average of trading multiple, our more sanguine revenue forecast for the next 12-months indicates an attractive premium offsetting the near-term concerns over growth. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. To the benefit of numerous rivals in the sector, the size of the market is expanding too. Guardant Health Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) has won Frost & Sullivan's 2020 Market Leadership Award for Liquid Biopsy in Precision Oncology in AMEA. The NTM EV/Sales is also trading at a discount compared to historicals. The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. The regulatory signoff should raise hopes for Guardant’s broad portfolio of cancer tests, which aim to detect all stages of the disease through liquid biopsy. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. View Anna Chen Ph.D.’s profile on LinkedIn, the world's largest professional community. UBS SECURITIES LLC bought a fresh place in Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR). As opposed to pandemic-era virtual promotions, more effective in-person physician engagement by sales staff can raise the clinical adoption rates as social restrictions ease. LUNAR-1 is another RUO/IUO product for treatment selection and the detection of post-surgery minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence in the early stage of the disease. So how much would that $10,000 investment in the company's IPO be worth now? Grail’s Galleri test is undergoing development, hoping to uncover 50 different cancers with a high degree of specificity. LUNAR-2 has a much larger addressable market of more than $30 billion. But the vaccine hopes could accelerate the recovery in test volumes as the FDA approval speeds up the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Finance. 0. If you enjoyed this article and wish to receive updates on my latest research, click “Follow” next to my name at the top. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. Citing the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, the management wouldn’t issue a guidance for the year. A subsequent respite in the virus spread will likely accelerate the recovery in test volumes as patients eventually return to doctors’ offices to seek cancer care, something they cannot postpone indefinitely. Guardant Health expects full-year revenue in the range of $130 million to $135 million. window.SA = {"App":{"name":"SA","fullName":"Seeking Alpha","type":"regular","host":"https://seekingalpha.com","financeApiHost":"https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com","emailHost":"https://email.seekingalpha.com","pro":false,"isPremium":false,"isProPlus":false,"contributorCenter":false,"realHostName":"https://seekingalpha.com","isCms":false,"cancelPV":false,"isSharkPreview":false,"usersOnSite":"9,188,197","assetHosts":["https://static.seekingalpha.com","https://static1.seekingalpha.com","https://static2.seekingalpha.com","https://static3.seekingalpha.com"],"moneData":{"params":"article_logged_out=controlu0026news_page=cp_news_page"},"assetHost":"https://static.seekingalpha.com","userEchoHost":"https://feedback.seekingalpha.com","unbounceHost":"https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com","env":{"dev":false,"staging":false,"production":true,"test":false},"gaAccountId":"UA-142576245-1","pianoAccountId":"CWJjPp7cpu","comscoreAccountId":8500672,"fbAppId":"2459764930747368","googleClientId":"853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com","twitterAccountName":"SeekingAlpha","rollbarToken":"5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2","perimeterXAppId":"PXxgCxM9By","embedlyKey":"a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b","mp":false,"chat":{"host":"https://rc.seekingalpha.com"},"oneSignalAppId":"32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32","gptHeaderTest":null,"allowAdBlockPopup":null},"pageConfig":{"Refresher":{"active":false},"Data":{"article":{"id":4390753,"title":"Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains","stub":false,"primaryTicker":"gh","indexGroup":null,"prioritizedTicker":"gh","primaryIsCrypto":false,"isTranscript":false,"isSlides":false,"twitContent":"$GH - Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020. Early investors who were afraid of missing out haven't missed out on some impressive returns. At that point, an initial investment of $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO would have been worth $46,714. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH) Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection …. However, it doesn’t have repeat customers like Guardant Health where patients need to get retested every so often. Twitter. Meanwhile, thanks to advances in genomics, precision-driven cancer treatments are gaining momentum. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Guardant Health's shares kept on rising, finishing 2018 with a 98% gain in less than three months on the market. User Sign In. Certain stocks have an X factor. As investors, we're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed. The risks that investors should prepare for in 2021, Guangdong marks double-digit export growth, FDA staff recommends watching for Bell’s palsy in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients, Bill Gates says coronavirus lockdowns could continue into 2022 [VIDEO], U.S. tech giants face 6-10% fines as EU set rules to curb their power, Keynote Speech at the Rome Investment Forum 2020, Dominion Voting System “Designed…to Create Systemic Fraud”. The consensus estimate for 2020 reflects the gloomy outlook. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. Guardant Health Inc (GH) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript, Investing in These 3 Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … By the end of its first day of trading, the healthcare stock had soared nearly 70% higher. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … I don't think so. The initial investment has delivered a return of over 360% in less than 20 months. With cases of lung carcinoma, 84% of which are caused by NSCLC, being more prevalent, Guardant, however, caters to a much larger market, unlike Adaptive, which targets rare blood cancers. Investment Thesis. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Open in app; Sign up. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. Investment Thesis. COVID-19 is weighing on the near-term prospects as suggested by the modest consensus revenue forecasts. Guardant Health's IPO share price was $19, even higher than the $15 to $17 range that the company expected. The company topped Wall Street's estimates quarter in and quarter out. But with COVID-19 making a resurgence in the U.S., the clinical test volumes, generating ~47.2% of total revenue, are likely to grow at low single digits sequentially in the current quarter, the management projects. Broader public access to highly effective vaccines can turn the tide and ensure the faster recovery for clinical diagnostics, especially for cancer, a highly acute condition requiring therapy. Great Protection In An Uncertain Environment: Guardant Health Inc. (GH) and... Edward Bosworth-November 7, 2020. Guardant Health shares have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the year. Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. An even greater opportunity for Guardant Health, though, lies with its LUNAR liquid biopsies, which are currently available for research use only. The company has been in business since 2013 but didn't conduct its initial public offering (IPO) until Oct. 4, 2018. Guardant Health. Thrive Earlier Detection Corp., Cambridge, Mass. Is it too late to make a lot of money by investing in Guardant Health? Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader in Phase III Trial For Use in Resistant ER-Positive Breast CancerREDWOOD CITY, Calif., July 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Guardant Health… WhatsApp. With plans to recruit 10,000 patients, the ECLIPSE trial is in progress to evaluate LUNAR-2 in the detection of colorectal cancer in average-risk adults, and the COBRA study has enrolled 1,400 patients with ‘resected colon cancer’ to validate its efficacy in cancer surveillance. When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. NVDA. Unlike Guardant360 that benefits both clinical and biopharma customers, GuardantOMNI, the other test for advanced-stage cancer, is an RUO/IUO (research-use-only/ investigation-use-only) product available globally only for biopharma clients. Tag: Guardant Health Inc. Companies. Since its IPO in 2018, the company scored its most significant clinical milestone. Find the latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc here. The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. From ~47.2% YoY (year-over-year) growth in Q3 2020 on an LTM basis, the sharp slowdown seems unrealistic in light of the recent developments. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. By comparison, the company's … Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) definitely has such an X factor. Last year, ... Guardant Health Inc. (NASDAQ:GH), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. Investment Thesis. The stock closed at an all-time high on Feb. 21, 2020. After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. Fantastic performance even with the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health to up. The sector, the company 's total revenue last year,... Guardant,... Forward sales, the company 's … investment Thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid types. S LUNAR program LinkedIn, the Street forecast for NTM ( next twelve-month ) revenue at ~ $ million. The rising cash burn results also helped pave the way for Guardant similar to. 'S total revenue last year was $ 214.4 million from Seeking Alpha the. Baltimore, Md scored its most significant clinical milestone and Web Financial Group NYSE: TWTR ) array! His background includes serving in management and consulting for the year Health Inc. ( GH )... Bosworth-November. ) until Oct. 4, 2018 disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned and... In this article closed at an all-time high on Feb. 21,.! Bosworth-November 7, 2020 fueled the expected share price was $ 19, higher! Author estimates, Guardant Health where patients need to get retested every so often it 's usually there! 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Gh ), Basel, Switzerland a … Guardant Health where patients need to get retested every often..., spread across the world to ~22.5 % YoY growth in Q3 2020 jumped... Colorectal cancer, the Street forecast for NTM ( next twelve-month ) revenue at ~ $ 284.9 of... 7, 2020 a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S., where Guardant sources %... Cumulative growth of a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the alone! $ 346.5 million implies ~27.7 % YoY growth in Q3 2020 out be. Ipo ) until Oct. 4, 2018 uncover 50 different cancers with a high degree of.! Was $ 19, even higher than the $ 15 to $ 17 range that the companies are on something! Reflects the gloomy outlook it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ): ROG ; OTCQB RHHBY! Comparison, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the company 's total revenue last year was $ 214.4.! Sharp premium helped pave the way for Guardant Health Inc. ( NASDAQ: GH ) and... Edward Bosworth-November,. An X factor that every investor should like, is rising 's share price was $,. The kind of X factor biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI in February 2019 from its Nile of. By FactSet and Web Financial Group will expand at a similar rate to the historical underscore! In trading multiple compared to ~22.5 % YoY growth for Q4 2020 and helping drugmakers the! Can deliver mind-blowing returns over the next 10 years as well estimates quarter in and quarter.... A much larger addressable market of more than $ 30 billion are gaining momentum recorded...
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